Homepage http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk
Dr Chris
Barnes’ Climate Change Papers
1.
Some
very short comments on the relationship between the Sun’s newly discovered
magnetic year, Earth’s climate and Planetary beat hypothesis, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and
Educational Consultants. E-mail manager @ bsec-wales.co.uk Released into Public Domain without full
reference list April 15th 2013. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/PBMAG1.HTM
Abstract
Planetary beat
hypothesis and Solar Fourier Domain
analysis are very briefly reviewed .
McIntosh’s theory of solar magnetic banding is introduced. A new hypothesis linking the
two on the basis of sun- earth system long timescale resonance is proposed and
tested. Planetary cycles in solar
magnetic effect and hence climate are predicted, evidence of which is found using completely separate methodologies such as
satellite observation; sunspot observation; radio-isotope studies and planetary
beat. The values fit very well with
hind-cast warm and cold periods going back to the dark ages cold period. The prediction is that while we
are still overall within the modern warm period there could well be a Dalton
like minimum in the period 2025-2046 accentuated by modern aviation and ship
transport either cancelling out some or all of modern warming
yet with the possibility that some solar warming resumes again until
circa 2180.
2. North Wales ( Gwynedd) Winter
and Summer Temperatures since 1917
influence of Solar Cycle and prediction of a QBO ( quasi-biennial oscillation)
and definition of its average length, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and
Educational Consultants, April 2015
Abstract :
Control and feedback mechanisms in the earth climate system are very
briefly discussed. NAO and the QBO are
strong indicators of winter temperature in Wales but are rather more irrelevant
in summer. Thus, a search for a solar
link to summer weather is made as an alternative. This suggests
Gwynedd’s recent extremes of weather could be due to changes in the solar
cycle. Analysis of a century’s worth of UK climate anomaly data suggests that a
shorter or longer than average solar cycle gives rise to an increased incidence
of both colder than normal winters and hotter than average summers with a very high statistical result for
summers. The
present work also suggests that by 2099 Gwynedd will be on average 1.07 C
warmer which is closest to the IPCC B1 scenario and at the VERY LOWEST END of
their prediction scale but that most of the change could be solar induced. It
is incredibly instructive to remove the data for the last and very unusual 14 year long solar cycle.
If this is done, then the warming slope changes into a dramatic and
very frightening cooling slope showing a change of -5.7 C in the next 100
years. The data for winter and summer temperature anomaly also
allows extraction of a sinusoidal varying QBO like component with a length of
approximately 24.9 months if one
constrains the solar cycle to its average length. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Doc4.HTM
3. A New Method for Medium Term
Temperature Anomaly Forecasting and Climate Prediction by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor
Scientific and Educational Consultants http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk/clipred01c.htm Published
online May 2015
Abstract
A New Method for Medium Term Temperature (summer season)
Anomaly Forecasting and Climate Prediction is
introduced based solely on a polynomial data file linked QBO and
temperature behaviour in North Wales since 1948. The key is in choosing two months to
establish QBO rate of change, here the preceding January and April are employed. Complex climate modelling is NOT required because the QBO via its
tele-connections is a complex and multivariate indicator of drivers from above
and below including natural drivers such as solar and volcanism in addition to
anthropogenic drivers such as greenhouse gases, wind farms, power systems,
radio transmitters and aviation.
Taking a naďve approach to results
leads to a perceived warming of about .22 C per decade which is
consistent with the IPCC’s most recent estimates. However, taking a more detailed analysis
leads to a cyclic understanding of recent warming and cooling in terms of solar
and volcanic activity. The
infamous ‘hockey stick’ period of warming may have been created by a
coincidental combination of a fall in volcanism and a rise in solar activity
the likes of which may only be seen either once every 792 years ; 2640 years or 5192 years based on
combinations of the three known volcanic, seismic and Gleissberg
cycles. Hindcasting the first two of these take us
back to the medieval warm period and Roman warm period consecutively. At least in North Wales it would appear we
have now entered a cooling phase which could last several decades.
4. Global anthropogenic temperature
change correlates better with total
energy in world’s electricity grids than with total energy use. Alternative
title: EEP (Energetic Particle
Precipitation) the key to climate change
By Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants email
manager@bsec-wales.co.uk First
published online without references
August 2017. http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/eep.htm
5.
Putting
the Meteors back in Meteorology by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and
Educational Consultants, E-mail doctor.barnes@yahoo.co.uk
Abstract
The combined
effects of meteor showers, solar flux and GCR on the interdecadal climate in
the UK. At lease recently, these are
seen to be in control with no evidence of warming. The UK temperature anomaly can be accounted
for by a simple algorithm.
1.
In the UK in the inter-decadal period 2005-2011 annual rainfall is most
strongly correlated with cosmic ray flux. The much higher correlation
coefficient for Cosmic Rays is supportive of the notion of a stronger, real
physical effect and is also supportive of the work of Svensmark. Alternatively, and/or additionally
meteoric debris does provide the nucleation material for rainfall, but cosmic
rays provide the correct atmospheric electricity conditions, see Tinsley (2000)
and Carslaw and Harrison (2002).
2.
Annual temperatures can be correlated with a simple linear algorithm
(SFCM) involving cosmic ray flux (C), solar flux (SF) and radio meteor flux (M)
according to equation (1).
Delta Temp = -.707 + 2.916* SFCM
…………………………………………………………………(1)
Where SFCM =
{(SF-C) +M} P<.023 so
statistically significant
Moreover, Extra-terrestrial inputs and
volcanism would appear to remain by far the strongest climate drivers in
inter-decadal times in a polluted 21st Century Atmosphere where
Mother Earth would still appear to have ‘designer-like’ feedback mechanisms protecting its inhabitants.
6.
Simple solar system measurements show the irrelevance of Carbon Dioxide
to present day earth temperature. http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Solarsys.htm
Abstract
AGW and AGW politics is briefly
discussed. Some scientists with
alternative and additional theories to AGW are named and their theories
discussed and summarized. The author’s own previous work which also shows CO2 is not needed to
account for recent UK temperatures is discussed. Other second order effects stronger than CO2
are discussed. In the rest of this work
a treatment using simple solar system
measurements to show the irrelevance of CO2 to excess planetary temperature is
developed. The work while in support of
Nikolov and Zeller does not directly prove their hypothesis, but it does show
the irrelevance of CO2. The conclusion
reached is that EITHER: Nikolov
and Zeller are correct or that CO2 warming effect requires
concentrations much, much higher than those we have a present. A small second order effect exists as the
atmospheric composition approaches very high
carbon dioxide concentrations.
Given the exponential nature of the increase it is estimated that an
atmospheric composition of 13.5% CO2 would cause some .8C of warming. Extrapolating to present levels of CO2 i.e. .0415% yields some 3 milli degrees Kelvin of
warming i.e. totally insignificant and about an order of magnitude less than my
previous estimates! CO2 could still be
a ‘greenhouse’ gas of very minor, indeed irrelevant proportions but given our real and mobile
atmosphere with convection as the main means of shifting heat we need not worry
about CO2 induced warming in the foreseeable future. The author’s other personal concerns regarding
climate warming, especially the cirrus cloud caused by aviation and the effects
of power systems on clouds are re-iterated.
Additionally, however and as an offset, the author’s previous work on
solar magnetic effects is suggestive
that we are entering a period of natural cooling for which we should all be
prepared.